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After World War I and II, the U.S. became adominant superpower. Up to now, we can say that it is "Era of Peaceorchestrated by the U.S.." However, the U.S. does not overtly aspire toimperialism. This awareness sometimes manifests in various divisive actions. Wecan say recent geopolitical developments are not unrelated to such a fragmentedconsciousness of the U.S.. The U.S. foreign policy has been shaped throughcooperation or intense conflict between unique worldviews and valuesrepresented by idealism, realism, and isolationism. ① Analyze and compare thesethree stances, and ② speculate on the potential geopolitical upheavals thatcould occur in the near future if former President Trump is re-elected in the2024 U.S. presidential election.
After World War I and II, the U.S. became adominant superpower. Up to now, we can say that it is "Era of Peaceorchestrated by the U.S.." However, the U.S. does not overtly aspire toimperialism. This awareness sometimes manifests in various divisive actions. Wecan say recent geopolitical developments are not unrelated to such a fragmentedconsciousness of the U.S.. The U.S. foreign policy has been shaped throughcooperation or intense conflict between unique worldviews and valuesrepresented by idealism, realism, and isolationism. ① Analyze and compare thesethree stances, and ② speculate on the potential geopolitical upheavals thatcould occur in the near future if former President Trump is re-elected in the2024 U.S. presidential election.
Idealism believes that international relations can be resolved throughinstitutions. It considers that conflicts between nations can be solved oralleviated by supranational organizations like the United Nations, IMF, andG10. Woodrow Wilson, the 28th President of the United States, is a prominentfigure in this view. Realism perceives international politics as nearly an anarchic.It argues that there are no organizations above nations that can possessauthority and provide protection, and each country should maintain militarypower sufficient for self-defense. Superpowers constantly conflict and pursuepower amid uncertainty and fear. The first U.S. Secretary of the Treasury,Alexander Hamilton is a notable figure for that. Isolationism contends that theU.S. should not concern global issues but prioritize domestic problems. The 7thPresident, Andrew Jackson, is a key proponent of this view. The U.S. hasevolved through both overlaps and conflicts of those three worldviews. The 28thpresident, Woodrow Wilson is a prominent figure for idealism. He believes thatpeople are rational and capable of consensus. It believes that there are interestsextend beyond its borders, and seeks to maintain global order.
Isolationismis associated with Andrew Jackson, the 7th President of the United States, whoadvocated for retaliation if America was interfered with, and pursuedanti-elitism. Lastly, realism, represented by Alexander Hamilton, the firstU.S. Secretary of the Treasury, suggests that diplomacy should be conductedfrom the perspective of America's interests. Trump was elected in the previouspresidential election with the slogan of "America First,"prioritizing national’s interests over any other values. This shows how tiredthe American people are of the U.S. being involved in global issues, andTrumpism can be interpreted as a phenomenon that is arisen by isolationism becomingmainstream. This shift occurred because, following the collapse of the SovietUnion and the shale revolution, the U.S. no longer needed to focus on theMiddle East. If Trump is re-elected in 2024 and isolationist forces growstronger, we might need to consider a Eurasia without American protection interms of geopolitics. Trump conducted diplomacy based on two foundations:realism and isolationism. Fundamentally, he preferred non-intervention inglobal issues and prioritized domestic issues due to isolationism, butrealistically, given America's global capabilities, he advanced transnational diplomacyin direction of beneficial to the U.S. from a realism perspective. Particularlyclose to anti-idealism, he denied the influence of supranational organizationslike international institutions, and similarly rejects multilateral diplomacy.He preferred to establish bilateral relationships. The current Bidenadministration is pressuring China and Russia through alliance-basedmultilateral diplomacy, but under Trump admin, such pressure will be likely toweaken. Instead, the alliances of BRICS countries, which are on the oppositeside of America, might also become looser. In such changes, the probability ofconflicts between the U.S. and other countries, especially China, may decrease,but as the U.S.’ deterrent power weakens, conflicts between other countries mayincrease.